Based on past race results and previous attempts at Mountain Mist 50km, I had predicted times and finishing order for the 16th running of Mountain Mist. Excluding weather, I had predicted 22 people would break 5 hours. The weather was less than perfect with mud covering much of the second half of the course, and proved to slow people down.
Based on official results from the Huntsville Track Club, 17 people broke 5 hours. Of that 17, I correctly predicted 14 of them.
Of the top 10, I predicted 8 of them correctly. Despite only a semi-technical approach to the prediction model, I would say that the placement order was moderately successful.
Congrats to Andrew Warner, Phil Canning and Patrick Fagerman for breaking 5 hours and coming in under the radar of my predictions!
Actual finishing order along with my predicted order
- David Riddle - predicted 1st (even)
- Dewayne Satterfield - predicted 3rd (+1)
- David Rindt - predicted 2nd (-1)
- Tim Vinson - predicted 6th (+2)
- Zachary Koch - predicted 8th (+3)
- Eric Charette - predicted 5th (-1)
- Eric Gilbertson - predicted 17th (+10)
- Robert Youngren - predicted 4th (-4)
- Kevin Boucher - predicted 7th (-2)
- David Purinton - predicted 15th (+5)
- Vince Molosky - predicted 12th (+1)
- Carl Laniak - predicted 10th (-2)
- Andrew Warner - did not predict a place/time
- David O'Keefe - predicted 21st (+7)
- Phil Canning - did not predict a place/time
- Blake Thompson - predicted 13th (-3)
- Patrick Fagerman - did not predict a place/time
Predicted finishing order along with actual finishing order
- David Riddle - Actual place 1st (even)
- David Rindt - Actual place 3rd (-1)
- DeWayne Satterfield - Actual place 2nd (+1)
- Robert Youngren - Actual place 8th (-4)
- Eric Charette - Actual place 6th (-1)
- Tim Vinson - Actual place 4th (+2)
- Kevin Boucher - Actual place 9th (+2)
- Zachary Koch - Actual place 5th (+3)
- Michael Green - Actual place 54th (-45)
- Carl Laniak - Actual place 12th (-2)
- Tony Laino - Actual place 57th (-46)
- Vince Molosky - Actual place 11th (+1)
- Blake Thompson - Actual place 16th (-3)
- John Nevels - Did not race
- David Purinton - Actual place 10th (+5)
- Eric Schotz - Actual place 29th (-13)
- Eric Gilbertson - Actual place 7th (+10)
- Brett Addington - Actual place 18th (even)
- Nils Pedersen - Did not race
- Matt Davies - Actual place 47th (-27)
- David O'Keefe - Actual place 14th (+7)
- Scott Cullen - Actual place 61st (-39)